The Jags Are Starting Over ... Again
It’s fair to say the Jaguars should have made their first Super Bowl experience a couple years ago. They lead by seven on the road against the Patriots entering the 4th quarter, and took a 20-10 lead early on. They managed to hold onto a three point lead until Tom Brady hit Danny Amendola for a four yard touchdown pass. Jags QB Blake Bortles got the ball back, but I think everyone knew the game was up. Well before then, with about 13:33 left in the fourth, Jags LB Myles Jack caught Patriots RB James White from behind, subsequently forcing and recovering a fumble. Jack popped right back up, and had a clear shot towards the endzone. Nothing in life is certain, but reasonable minds agree he would have scored. The defensive TD would have given Jacksonville a 27-10 lead, and with the defense they possessed that year, I think it’s safe to say they would have won and made their first Super Bowl appearance. Instead, the Jags unraveled, Bortles turned out to be Bortles, and now a franchise that everyone thought was set up for success for at least a few years is back to square one.
Offense
It’s the Gardner Minshew show now. The former Washington State product took over at QB upon Nick Foles’ injury in the season opener, and played surprisingly well. Minshew completed 60 percent of his passes and had 3271 passing yards to go with 21 touchdowns and only six interceptions. His record as a starter at 6-6 bodes well for his trajectory, as there are holes in the offense that even good QB play cannot make up for. Minshew looks like he can be a good starter in the NFL for a long time. He’s not elite, and likely will never develop into such, but the team is on the right track at signal caller. Jacksonville’s front office apparently agrees, as they shipped veteran free-agent signing Foles to Chicago.
Minshew will be throwing to third-year man D.J. Clark Jr., who made his first Pro Bowl appearance last season, alongside Deedee Westbrook, Marquise Lee, and Chris Conley. Clark’s 2019 production (78 catches, 1008 yards, 8 TDs) is hard to argue with, though I still believe him to be a low end WR1. That said, the Jags boast one of the top half of the NFL’s wide receiving corps. They don’t have any elite targets, but they have a quality set of average targets on the outside. The problem lies at tight end, where James Oliver and James O’Shaughnessy are the top two options. There aren’t any TE’s in this draft work taking where the Jags will be picking, so that position should be a top target on days 2 and 3.
Jags GM Dave Caldwell is one of those you continue to shake your head at because you’re puzzled that he is still in place. One can argue Tom Coughlin has been mostly in charge in Jacksonville in recent years, so perhaps Caldwell can get back to owning his work product. Something Jags fans may never get over is taking RB Leonard Fournette with the fourth overall pick in 2017. I’m not one of those people that does the “you passed on such and such for such and such.” These types of things are not apples to oranges. While it’s true the Jags went running back in a draft with Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, it is fair to question if either of those guys would have reached their full potential in the system and culture that is present in Jacksonville. On the bright side, at least they didn’t trade up for Mitchell Trubisky.
That being said, Fournette wasn’t a bad pick, though there have been continual issues with the front office and in the locker room. In spite of that, he played 15 games last season, rushing for over 1100 yards and adding a career high 72 catches. His cap hit is just over $8 million this season, and the Jags can elect to have him hit the open market and cut ties after this season if they’d like. You can do much worse at RB, though it would behoove the front office to draft his future replacement later in the draft.
The offensive line is where this offense surely struggles. Brandon Linder is a solid starting C, and Jawaan Taylor should improve at RT in his second season out of Florida. The team added LG Andrew Norwell from Carolina, a good and desperate addition on the left side of their offensive line. It looks like they will be going into 2020 with Cam Robinson at LT, would should give Gardner Minshew nightmares. A.J. Cann is likely to remain the starter at RG as well. He is equally as bad as Cam Robinson, but with the signing of Norwell and second year leap from Taylor, there’s talent in parts along the offensive line. That should help Minshew stay upright.
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Defense
The defense has long been the crown jewel of this club, and they’re not far from returning to that point. In fact, Jacksonville has some really good players on defense, but the team lacks quality depth, and there’s too much of a drop off in talent from one guy to the next.
This defensive line can be one of the best in all of football with just decent linebacker player. Rookie Josh Allen showed flashes of greatness last season. His edge rushing mates are Yannick Ngakoue and Dawane Smoot. Ngakoue reportedly refuses to sign a long-term deal with Jacksonville, so placing the franchise tag on him was the right thing to do. You can’t let a talent like that just walk. Those three combined for 24.5 sacks last season.
On the interior, Rodney Gutner comes over from Arizona, and joins Al Woods and Taven Bryan. This is a formidable unit that should be able to get heavy pressure on opposing QBs and stop the run. The challenge, however, is finding quality linebackers that can help support the big guys up front. After having quality seasons in his first three NFL campaigns, Myles Jack struggled to play at a decent level last season. Part of that can be contributed to his battle to stay healthy, but who knows if he can fully recover back to full strength. The team added Joe Schboert from Cleveland, an addition that is underwhelming if you’re expecting him to start but a shrewd move if he’s primarily for depth. This teams need linebackers quick, fast and in a hurry.
It’s also no surprise that when you trade away one of the top cover corners in the game, you have to fill that hole at some point. The Darqueze Dennard signing is a good start, but there’s lots of work to do to bring this secondary up to speed. D.J. Hayden should not be starting for any team that wants to contend. Rodney Harrison at free safety is just okay, but Jarrod Wilson at strong is a serviceable back line of defense.
Clemson LB Isaiah Simmons is the second overall prospect on my big board. (Chase Young is far and away number one.) — Richard Shiro/Associated Press
Draft Needs
Jacksonville’s biggest holes are along the offensive line, at linebacker and in the secondary. I absolutely do not buy the premise that some beat writers have taken in that they need to improve their interior defensive line. Gutner is a good signing, and there’s plenty of depth there. If Clemson LB Isaiah Simmons falls to number nine, they should snatch him up in a heartbeat. Assuming they land Simmons at nine, they can roll the dice on CB’s A.J. Terrell out of Clemson or C.J. Henderson of Florida. None of the first-round worthy tackles are likely to make it to their second first-round pick at 20th overall.
If Simmons is somehow snatched up before nine, the Jags best options are probably tackles Mekhi Becton (Louisville) or Andrew Thomas (Georgia). Tristan Wirfs will be long gone by nine, Jedrick Wills isn’t getting pass Arizona at eight. A contingency plan could involve a trade. Assuming the Lions trade out of the 3rd overall pick like they should, Jacksonville could package picks nine and 20 to Detroit for sixth overall. That would set them up to take the best cornerback in the draft, Ohio State’s Jeff Okudah.
Early Projection
That’s the thing about Jacksonville. This isn’t a bad roster, but the team culture and construction leave glaring holes and question marks. The Jags should have moved on from Doug Marrone, but sticking with him means another year of relationship challenges that cause negative dynamics in the locker room. Problem is, this team isn’t bad enough to be selecting Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields next spring, but they’re not good enough to make the playoffs either. They seem to be perpetually stuck in purgatory. That isn’t changing this season. Last in AFC South.