The Colts Are All In

Ryan Grigson was pretty bad at being a GM during his tenure with the Indianapolis Colts. After falling into Andrew Luck his first offseason at the helm, he made one questionable move after another. His time in Indy is probably best summed up in the Trent Richardson trade, in which he sent away a first-round pick for the former Alabama RB. That deal did not work out. He lucked his way into the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning yet couldn’t manage to surround him with a decent offensive line. Grigson has to take some credit for Luck’s brutal injury history, and thus his early and abrupt retirement. 

Chris Ballard, on the contrary, knows what he’s doing. He’s drafted two all-pros in G Quentin Nelson and LB Darious Leonard. He put together a roster that was the dark horse favorite to come out of the AFC before Luck’s retirement last season. In the past few weeks, Ballard has made some strewed moves. Seeing Tom Brady move to the other conference, the Colts saw a clear opening to join the ranks of elite company in the AFC. Alongside Kansas City and Baltimore, Indy has a real shot to win it all this season, and it starts at QB.

Offense

Had Ballard made a desperation move and signed Philip Rivers to a long-term deal, the outlook on this equation would be totally different. He managed to secure the former Chargers QB on a strictly one year deal worth $25 million. It remains to be seen what the long-term plan is at QB, but that’s a moot point until next offseason. The objective is to win now, and with each team in the AFC South making truly questionable decisions (the Titans giving Ryan Tannehil a long-term deal; the Texans trading Deandre Hopkins; the Jaguars being the Jaguars) Indy should cruise to the top of the division. 

Rivers is not the player he once was. He’s erratic at times and turns the ball over way too much. He’s brash and hasn’t done enough lately to back up some of his on-field antics. He is not an elite QB, but he’s an upgrade over Jacoby Brissett. You can legitimately compete for a Super Bowl with Rivers under center. That just isn’t true for Brissett. That said, it’s the supporting cast in Indy that makes them true title contenders. 

This offensive line unit is arguably the best in football. Nelson is the best guard in the NFL, and perhaps the best offensive lineman in the game. He was my draft crush leading up to the 2018 NFL Draft, as I had him as the best player available. He has not disappointed. He’s flanked at LT by the veteran Anthony Castonzo. The former Alabama product, Ryan Kelly, lines up at C. Rivers blindside will be well protected. Mark Glowinski is probably the weak link along the offensive line, but RG is where you want your weakest player if you can pick, and he’s supported at RT by Braden Smith, a third-year guy with Pro Bowl potential himself. 

The aforementioned big guys up front are going to give Rivers a lot of time to find a good but not great receiving and tight end corps. It remains to be seen if T.Y. Hilton is still the player he was a few years ago. He’s not going to replicate his 2016 season again (91 catches, 1448 yards) but simply being healthy and available for 14-16 games can change the trajectory of this offense. Zach Pascal is a decent WR2, while Jack Doyle remains a consistently high performer at TE. There is no elite RB on this roster, but the Colts arguably have the best and most balanced RB by committee group. Marlon Mack was a 1000-yard rusher last year, Nyheim Hines is a reliable pair of hands in the passing game, and Jordan Wilkins effectively plugs the holes where needed. Ballard has done a phenomenal job building an offense from where it matters most (the offensive line), finding a serviceable one year stop gap at signal caller that’s not great but good enough to get you to a Super Bowl (Rivers) and not paying gross amounts of money for skill position players. 

Defense

This front seven is going to be one of the best in football, with the former All-Pro Justin Houston coming off the edge and the newly acquired DeForest Buckner applying pressure up the middle. Second year LB Bobby Okereke made half the number of tackles as Leonard last season but is not too far behind in terms of level of play. Expect a big second year leap from him now that he has Buckner and Houston in front of him. DT Denico Autry stands to gain much playing next to Buckner as well.

Indy will compliment what should be an elite and destructive front seven with an average secondary, and with the pass rushers they have upfront, the group should go from average to good. You can do much worse than CB pairing of Kenny Moore II and Rock Ya-Sin. The pair enter their fourth and second year, respectively, as pros. Expect an increase in their performance this season. Ya-Sin has the potential to be high end nickel back, so finding a serviceable, full-time outside partner for him can help provide needed depth. Second year man Khari Willis takes over for Clayton Geathers at strong safety, paired with the Ohio State product Malik Hooker at free safety. I expected Hooker to be a more of a ballhawk at this point in his career and believe the additions up front will help him blossom into the true playmaker Indy believed to have gotten in the draft a couple years ago. 

Draft Needs

If there’s one place that can stand to improve on this defense, it’s depth at linebacker and along the defensive line, patricianly the interior. Without a first-round pick, there’s limited high impact, play now guys available, but because the Colts don’t need heavy contributors at any key positions, Ballard can find the right fits at later points in the draft. That said, they still possess the 34th and 44th overall picks, and thus have the possibility to add some quality depth across the board.

Ballard could prioritize packaging the two second round picks to move up and find a long-term answer at QB. The options late in the first-round will probably be Washington’s Jacob Eason or Georgia’s Jake Fromm. Utah State QB Jordan Love isn’t making it out of the top 15. 

If they stand pat, Neville Gallimore out of Oklahoma and Jordan Elliot from Missouri are possible additions at DT at either pick, while adding another pass catcher could do wonders for the offense. I don’t see Clemson’s Tee Higgins still being available in the second round, but Arizona State’s Brandon Aiyuk and Baylor’s Denzel Mims should still be around. I like Cole Kmet, the TE out of Notre Dame, a lot. Putting him opposite Jack Doyle could wreak havoc long-term.

Early Projection

This is one of the best rosters in the AFC. Ballard is one of the best GM’s in the NFL, and this team is set up for success not only this year but in the long run. The key for the future is finding a signal caller they can believe in, but for now, Rivers is a serviceable stop gap that keeps you in title contention. Ballard has assembled an exemplarily offensive and defensive line, and when you have elite talent in the trenches, you only need a decent QB to compete. Rivers is decent. It’s up to Frank Reich and the coaching staff to guide the ship from here. This is a title contender. 1st in AFC South.