The downside of making a surprise sprint to your conference championship game doesn’t really show up until the offseason. Too often, general managers make decisions that end up being erroneous, as they tend to believe their teams are better than they actually are. To be clear, the Titans earned their place in the AFC Title Game. They beat Tom Brady in his house decisively. They shut down the MVP and an exceptional offensive line on numerous fourth and short plays. They deserved to battle Kansas City for the right to go to the Super Bowl.

All that said, what’s happening in Tennessee now is what you would expect from a team that thinks it’s better than it actually is. The most painstaking move was re-signing QB Ryan Tannehill. It’s essentially a two-year deal worth about $42 million, and make no mistake, it’s an awful deal. The team is now saddled with a mediocre QB on a massive salary, a running back primed for a decline because of his massive workload, and a division that has gotten much better. (Sans the Texans) I hope the people in Nashville enjoyed their magical postseason run, because it’ll probably be a long time before they get that close to a Lombardi again.

Offense

It all starts with Tannehill, who in 10 starts last season, threw for 2742 yards to go with 22 TDs and only six interceptions. It was a career year for him, and a far cry from his 2018 performance in Miami. What isn’t getting attention, however, is the supporting cast around Tannehill that served as the catalyst for his Nashville Renaissance.

A lot of mediocre QBs could look good with the talent on the offense, specifically along the offensive line. Taylor Lewan remains nasty, aggressive and dependable at LT. Roger Saffold and Ben Jones are vets that just keep getting better, and you can argue Dennis Kelly had a career year last season at RT. Nate Davis is the weak link of the bunch, but he’s at RG, the spot where you want your worst lineman if you can help it.

At wide receiver, the Titans have a young group of guys with big play potential, starting with second year man A.J. Brown. In his rookie season out of Ole Miss, Brown exploded with 52 catches, 1051 yards and 8 TDs. Opposite Brown is the fifth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, Corey Davis. Davis hasn’t quite lived up to his top five selection, but he played in 15 games and racked up 601 receiving yards on 43 catches. With Brown as their WR1, any improvement from Davis is icing on the cake. Sixth year man Adam Humphries is a reliable target out of the slot. TE Delanie Walker is gone, but the Titans have a pretty good bunch of guys at this position without any superstars, which is what you want from a cap perspective. Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser make for a soild pairing.

The elephant in the room, and the guy that makes this entire unit churn along, is Derrick Henry, not Tannehill. Henry had a monster 2019 season, and almost singlehandedly powered the Titans to the AFC Title Game. That said, Henry is entering his fifth season as a pro. He has played in no less than 15 games in each of his pro season’s, and carried the ball 303 times during the regular season in 2019, then added 83 carries in the postseason. He also carried the ball 602 times during his three year career at Alabama, with 395 of those coming in 2015. In essence, Henry is a big, strong, powerful man, but there’s a lot of tear on that body. The Titans placed the franchise tag on Henry, which shows they have similar worries, and are releuctant to commit to him long-term. If I were Henry, I would hold out and refuse to play under the franchise tag. He makes every facet of this offense churn and is not easily replaced in one offseason. He should demand to get paid because it would not surprise me if he has a steep decline in the next two to three years. Tennessee needs to draft a complimentary piece to help lighten his workload in the middle rounds of the draft.

Defense

While the offensive side of the ball remains talented, it’s the defense that’s set to be a catalyst for a drop in form. The secondary is the strongest position group on defense, where Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler form a solid tandem at cornerback. Two relatively unknown guys in Kenneth Durden and Chris Milton are scheduled to help provide depth at CB with the departure of Logan Ryan. If I’m Mike Vrabel, I’d be a little worried about that. Kevin Byard is a top ten starting strong safety. Kenny Vacarro never turned out to be what I thought he was coming out of Texas, but he’s still a solid starter.

The concerns for the Titans rear their ugly head when you look at the front seven, as there’s not a single elite rusher or edge stopper on this side of the football. The best player upfront is by far DT Da’Quan Jones, and he’s joined by second-year pros Jeffrey Simmons and Isaiah Mack. Tennessee is probably counting on a big second year jump in productivity for the both of them. Inside linebackers Jayon Brown and Reshann Evans return, as the two combined for 216 tackles last season.

The biggest worry and hole in the defense will stem from the absence of Jurrell Casey, who is off to Denver via a very questionable trade. Casey was the Titans best defensive player last season, and replacing him is no small task. Whenever you’re signing Vic Beasley to come be a main edge rusher and/or outside backer, alarm bells about struggles to get to the QB should start going off in your head. I assume head coach Mike Vrabel is counting on a huge leap of performance in many of his young defensive players, including Harold Landry III and the aforementioned Evans and Brown. We’ll see if they can take the leap.

Draft Needs

With the departure of Casey, the Titans need help on the interior defensive line. However, the best inside big guys, like Derrick Brown from Auburn and Javon Kinlaw out of South Carolina, will be long gone by pick 29. As such, edge rusher may be the path in the first round, as guys like Iowa’s A.J. Epensa and Penn State’s Yetur Gross-Matos might still be available. Each were once projected top 15 picks. I’m really high on LSU safety Grant Delpit, and believe he’d be an exceptional addition for this secondary. Ohio State CB Damon Arnette also fits a need.

Early Projection

The Titans have some talent that can blossom and gel well with the right mix of injury positivity and coaching. But for as good as the offense looks on paper, there’s still a lot of raw talent at the skill positions. The Titans have given Tannehill the keys to the car, at least for one more season, and he’s yet to prove in his career that he can operate a luxury vehicle at a consistent level two years in a row. Combine that with the insane workload of Henry last season, and I have huge reservations about the type of ceiling the Titans should expect to have. If you’re a betting a person, the chips rely on Tannehill. I’m not ready to make that bet. 2nd in AFC South.

The Titans Had A Magical Run. I Hope They Enjoyed It.

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