With every day that passes, it becomes increasingly clear that Texans Head Coach and General Manager Bill O’Brien has absolutely no idea what he is doing. O’Brien has made a host of questionable in-game decisions and poor clock management during his tenure with Houston, but it’s some of the moves he’s made as GM that have truly left even those of us that are marginally football literate incredibly baffled.

To say that it is sad would be a good way to sum it up, but it’s so much more than that. Namely, the Texans have a franchise QB on a rookie deal in DeShauan Watson. These are the years the front office should be taking advantage of, investing heavily on the offensive and defensive lines to make the most of the window during Watson’s rookie contract. It’s more than apparent that will not happen, that O’Brien is clearly in way over his head, and that if changes aren’t made soon, we may never see the full bloom of Watson – at least in a Texans uniform.

Offense

Trading one of the best wide receivers in the league is baffling enough, but even reasonable minds can come to a reasonable understanding around why you would trade a guy like that, especially when your franchise QB is coming toward the end of his rookie deal. To be clear, I don’t believe Hopkins, at this point in his career, is a guy you trade. He’s entering his age 28 season, and has only missed two games in his seven year tenure. He’s durable, sure handed and explosive, and he is going to make any young QB he plays with better. You don’t deal a guy like that.

If you insist on parting ways with him, however, any decent executive is going to do their best to get a somewhat equitable haul in return. O’Brien is not a decent executive, and so rather than coming away with Arizona’s eighth overall pick for one of the top five receives in the game, the Texans are left trying to replace a massive hole with later round picks. O’Brien could have planned to replace Hopkins with Oklahoma WR Ceedee Lamb or Alabama standout Jerry Jeudy. Neither of those are options now. Instead, O’Brien opted for a massive overpay of free-agent WR Randall Cobb. He’ll likely be part of a receiving corps that includes Kenny Stills and Will Fuller V. The Texans still have playmakers on the outside, but Fuller has struggled to stay healthy his entire career. Add in mediocre TE play from Jordan Akins and Darron Fells, and start getting really concerned about the trajectory of this offense.

All of this, of course, is before you take a look at the offensive line, a unit that Houston has seemingly struggled to make average ever since they came into existence in 2002. O’Brien’s lone smart trade was last offseason, when he acquired LT Laremy Tunsil from Miami. Houston probably gave up too much for Tunsil, but franchise left tackles are hard to come by. You can forgive O’Brien for that. Houston is likely to come back with Nick Martin at center, which is a good outlook. Looking at the rest of the offensive line, however, makes you frightened for Watson’s future.

Houston added tackle Brent Qvale in free agency this past week. There’s reason to hope that the second year man out of Alabama State, Tytus Howard, will improve drastically on a below average rookie season before he ended up on IR. For the sake of optimism, let’s say Tunsil at LT, Martin at C, and Howard at RT ends up being a serviceable bunch. Concern still rings eternal at each guard position, where Max Scharping and Zach Fulton simply are not very good at their jobs. Upon further review, perhaps that’s why O’Brien traded for running back David Johnson in the Hopkins deal, as he intends on utilizing Johnson and more two TE sets to help give Watson more time to find open targets.

Defense

This is a really bad unit that is getting worse. Houston still boast one of the best defensive players in the league in J.J. Watt, but it’s time to start seriously pointing out Watt’s inability to stay healthy. You can’t be the best if you are not on the field, and if recent years are any indication, you cannot reasonably expect Watt to suit up for 16 games this season. Take him out of the equation, and you fear that the leagues 26th ranked defense from 2019 has no where to go but down.

Justin Reid is a rangy strong safety with good ball skills and relatively decent tackling ability. On the outside, Gareon Conley and Bradley Roby make a decent pairing of corners, and the Texans have added depth in the secondary with the signings of Jaylen Watkins, Eric Murray and Vernon Hargreaves. Tashon Gipson Sr. likely comes back as the starting strong safety as well.

As noted, the front seven, when Watt is not in the lineup, is mediocre at best, and will struggle mightily to get to the QB. Former first round pick Whitney Mercilus is on the decline after several seasons of elite play. Benardrick McKinney saw a slight drop in form last season, but is still a serviceable MIKE linebacker alongside the consistent and emerging Zack Cunningham. Signing the perennially underachieving Barkevious Mingo almost always means you’re desperate for depth in the front seven, and that tracks here for the Texans. Acquiring interior talent on the line and at linebacker should be a top draft priority for O’Brien.

Coaching

Bill O’Brien can’t manage a game clock and has a penchant for making a series of questionable in-game decisions. Yet no matter how awful he may be on the sidelines, it is nothing compared to the job he has done as the team’s top executive. He traded away Jadeavon Clowney for the remnants of Mingo, Jacob Martin and a third round pick. He traded two first-round picks to the Dolphins for the aforementioned Tunsil, in a deal so astonishing that Tunsil reportedly said “I’d trade me.” They built a 24-point lead in the AFC Divisional Playoff against Kansas City, only to lose by three scores. He traded one of the top receivers in the game for a beat up RB on a superstar deal and a second round pick. Let’s agree to say less.

Top Pick (No First Round Pick)

This is why you don’t trade an elite player in their prime without getting a first round pick in return. The Texans have huge needs along the interior offensive and defensive line, inside linebacker, and tight end, and they aren’t in a position to address most of them because of O’Brien’s poor roster management. Maybe they go DT in round 2 with Texas A&M product Justin Madubuike, and throw third round flyers on TE Thaddeus Moss out of LSU and CB A.J. Green from Oklahoma State. Because of the lack of draft capital, what you see now is mostly what you’re going to get come from September.

Way-Too-Early Projection

The Texans seemed destined to have the same ceiling as long as they kick the can down the road on wholesale changes within the structure of the organization. While the passing of owner Bob McNair may be presenting management challenges at the moment, there’s simply no excuse for the poor roster management and construction O’Brien has been able to undertake unchecked. Up to this point, the heroics of Watson and Hopkins, as well as a healthy Watt and youthful Mercilus, have kept this team in contention. Now, however, it seems to be that tensions are boiling mightily, talent is decreasing, and there’s no clear plan as to where the franchise is headed. 2020 could potentially end being a very long season in Houston. 3rd in AFC South.

Bill O'Brien Must Be Stopped

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