NFL Summer Power Rankings (1-16)
You can access numbers 17-32 here.
Obviously, there have been some key changes in personnel (Cam to New England, for example) so we’ll be updating our pre-season rankings to go with in-depth, team-by-team previews ahead of the opener on September 10.
16. Steelers
Pittsburgh’s quarterback returns after his season ending injury, but he’s entering his age 38 season. A late season three game losing streak ended their improbable run to the playoffs. Their middle of the pack ranking is largely based on whether or not their QB is healthy, as the defense ranked third in defensive efficiency last season. The offense? Last.
15. Rams
At some point, the chicken is coming to roost, and that began to happen last year for the Rams after appearing in the Super Bowl. Now, as they hope to move into their billion dollar palace, years of bad contracts and trading away draft capital is likely to make the task of going from average to good really hard. Not to mention their offensive line is atrocious.
14. Vikings
We have to start calling Kirk Cousins money heist, because he managed to get $61 million in guaranteed money from the Bikes this offseason. Granted I’m not here to crap on Cousins. He actually had a remarkably good year, throwing for 3603 yards to go with 26 touchdowns and only four picks. Cousins is one the top 15 quarterbacks in the league. You pay those guys. The problem is I’m not quite sure Cousins is good enough to get over the hump. Can you compete with Cousins? Absolutely. Can you win the Super Bowl? Time will tell. A good place for Minnesota to start is by finally getting over the Green Bay hump. They won the division in 2017 with a 13-3 record. They need to replicate that.
13. Packers
I talk a lot about the Packers here.
12. Broncos
Alright, yeah, this may be a little too high for the Broncos. We don’t know how good second year man Drew Lock really is, but we’ll certainly find out. I loved Denver’s draft, adding wide outs Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler and center Lloyd Cushenberry III. That said, it’s the defense that has them this high for me. Defensive tackle Jurrell Casey is an underrated addition from Tennessee, and Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons make arguably the best safety tandem in football. With a bounce back season from EDGE Bradley Chubb and consistent performance from Von Miller, just mediocre play from Lock should have this team competing in nearly every contest.
11. Saints
Unpopular opinion: the Saints title window is slammed shut, and while that’s not very apparent right now, I don’t think it’ll take too long to rear its ugly head. Let’s qualify something really quickly -- Drew Brees is still one of the top five quarterbacks in the game, and Michael Thomas is a pass catching machine. That said, there are some serious concerns about important parts of the roster, starting with the interior offensive line and secondary. They drafted guard Ceasar Ruiz to help sure up Brees’ protection, but rookies are still rookies. Andrus Peat has been pretty bad the past couple of seasons. At corner, Marshon Lattimore has regressed since his elite rookie season, and while they have an elite edge rusher in Cam Jordan and a good one in Marcus Davenport, there’s not much depth along the line. The Saints were 13-3 last season but had an expected win-loss of 10.7, making them the word worst 13+ win team last decade. They were 7-1 in games decided by one possession. Averages exist for a reason.
10. Cardinals
You’d be forgiven for not knowing how good Kyler Murray was last season. He threw for 3722 yards to go with 20 TD’s and 12 interceptions and added 544 rushing yards. His arrival also catapulted Arizona from dead last in offense in 2018 to 13th in 2019. All they did this offseason was add arguably the best wideout in football in DeAndre Hopkins. Every year, at least one team goes from worst to first in their division, and the Cardinals are the most likely candidate. While I would have preferred to see them take an offensive tackle with their first round pick, former Clemson linebacker Isiah Simmons fits a huge need. CB Robert Alford comes back from IR, and Chandler Jones is still one of the best edge rushers in the NFL. There’s a sleeper contender in the Valley.
9. Bills
Buffalo has waited a long time for a winner, and while their ownership group may be cruddy human beings, GM Brandon Beane and Head Coach Sean McDermott have done a hell of a job putting together a talented team and a great culture. It’ll be interesting to see if the Bills can stand clear of the Pegula family’s dysfunction, but if they can, the depth of how good they can be relies on the arm of one Josh Allen. Allen isn’t good, but he isn’t bad either. The Bills ranked second in defensive efficiency in 2018 and sixth last season. They added wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Tom Brady is out of the division. The Jets and Dolphins, with Sam Darnod and Tua Tagaviola, respectively, are still one or two years away from contention. If it’s going to happen anytime soon, the time is now.
8. Seahawks
Seattle apparently thought about trading Russell Wilson to Cleveland for the number one pick in 2018. The Browns said no, decisions that are colassally stupid for both teams. Wilson is the best player in football, but while Seattle has done their best to build around their superstar quarterback, glaring holes remain, particularly on the interior defensive line and defensive line at-large. To go from playoff participants back to title contenders, Seattle needs to find a pass rush, especially in lieu of the impending departure of Jadeveon Clowney.
7. Buccaneers
It’s easy to assume Tampa lands here because of the addition of quarterback Tom Brady, and that certainly helps, but it’s who Brady comes over to compliment that makes the Bucs a title contender.
After ranking last in defensive efficiency in 2018, Tampa finished last season fifth, and had the number one rush defense to boot. They were the 12th best pass defense all while their quarterback threw 30 interceptions. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist. Replace a turnover prone quarterback with one that may not be his 34 year old self but is still the best of all time, and you can start dreaming about playing a home Super Bowl.
6. Eagles
Carson Wentz is not injury prone. Aside from his season ending back injury in 2018, Wentz has been a reliable signal caller. People that disagree with this assertion will point to his untimely ACL tear towards the end of the 2017 regular season, but ACL tears are hardly an indication of an “injury prone” player. Wentz was concussed in Philly’s wildcard playoff loss to Seattle this past January. Had he stayed in the game, there would have been a public outcry. He’s pulled, and suddenly he’s injury prone. You can’t win with most people.
Criticism aside, this is a really good football team. The roster is far from perfect, but it is great, and with the right tweaks and coaching, they should once again compete for the NFC East. To make that happen, they’ll need a better sophomore year from Andre Dillard and far fewer drops from a receiving corps with notoriously butter dipped hands.
5. Colts
I know some Colts fans that just aren’t big fans of the Phillip Rivers signing, and I don’t quite understand the vitriol. He’s a definitive upgrade over Jacoby Brissett, and he’ll be operating behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. I don’t know how many years rookie running back Jonathon Taylor will be in the NFL because of the workload he had at Wisconsin, but he’ll be an instant contributor this season.
4. Niners
Kyle Shannahan can’t hold onto a lead in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl’s, but he can coach his butt off any other time. Meanwhile, John Lynch ended up fumbling the bag pretty atrociously in the 2017 NFL Draft, and yet they were still nine minutes away from a Lombardi. They lost DeForest Buckner in a trade with the Colts, but added a worthy rookie replacement in Javon Kinlaw out of San Francisco. Joe Staley’s retirement can’t be underscored, and no one knows what’s left in Trent Williams’ tank. All that said, the front seven should still be monstrous. Shannhan needs to find some explosiveness from his wideouts. He’ll hope rookie wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk can be that spark.
3. Cowboys
Like it or not, the Cowboys are the real deal. They finished 8-8 last season but had an expected win rate of 10.7. They replaced head coach Jason Garrett with a proven winner in Mike McCarthy. They didn’t get cute and took the best player available in the draft when CeeDee Lamb fell to them. They have an elite pass rusher in DeMarcus Lawrence, an offense that should light up scoreboards, and a defense that will bend sometimes but should seldom break. This is the best team Jerry has had since 2014.
2. Chiefs
1. Ravens
This is sure to “outrage” some people so let me qualify this. Number one, I have always hated the term “defending champs.” Champions don’t defend anything. They have won their respective title and no one can ever take that away.
Kansas City isn’t defending anything in 2020. That said, a team doesn’t need to start a season as the favorite to win it all just because they won it last season. That’s why each season is different, and why they hand out a different Lombardi trophy every year.
The philosophical reasons aside, I have the Ravens just ahead of Kansas City purely for football reasons. The first is and most notable one is the expansion of the NFL postseason. Last season, Baltimore finished with the best record in the AFC, and Kansas City came in second. With seven playoff teams, and thus one postseason bye per conference and not two, securing that number one seed is going to be paramount. Reminder - no team that has played on Wildcard Weekend has made the Super Bowl since 2012. Of course that number is likely to increase now that only one team will receive the open date, but the last eight seasons have shown us that extra week off matters.
Which brings me to the schedule. The Ravens play the AFC South, NFC East and get the Chiefs in Baltimore. Kansas City has to play the brutal NFC South, and somehow managed to have all their road games sandwiched into back-to-backs. Meaning, the Chiefs have four occurrences of having to play back-to-back road games. That cannot be underestimated. On top of that, they managed to draw both New Orleans and Tampa Bay on the road. It’s the luck of the scheduling sequence that’s been in place since 2002, but a sequence nonetheless.
With these being post draft power rankings, it simply reflects my expectations for teams post the draft, though over the summer, these rankings come into more focus and overhaul with in-depth analysis of team rosters, 2019 statistics, and game-by-game projections. For now, I rate the Ravens as slight favorites to win the Super Bowl, not necessarily because they’re the better team, but because their schedule is more conducive to them having to only win two games to get to the big game as opposed to three.