2021 NFL Mock Draft – Volume One

Trevor Lawerence will be the first overall pick, and the Jets and Jaguars are in a race of futility to see who gets to take him number one overall.

It’s almost December, which means it’s almost Black Monday, which means, for a handful of teams, it’s officially draft season. Let the fun begin!

The names at the top of this draft are household ones at this point. Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is the best prospect at his position since Andrew Luck. That doesn’t mean we’re all saying he’s going to be as good as Luck, but if you’re looking for someone that has all the traits and physical tools to be elite at the games most important spot, Lawrence checks the list and then some.

After Lawrence, there’s a noticeable drop off at the QB position, but not necessarily overall. To no one’s surprise, I have Justin Fields going number two overall, regardless of who eventually picks at that slot, but the gap between Fields and Lawrence is immense. To make it simpler, for example, the Jets, Giants, Falcons and Eagles all take Lawrence if they would have happened to secure the number one pick. None of those teams take Fields if they happen to fall into the second slot. That’s not a slight against Fields, who I truly believe can be a top end franchise QB with the right organization and coaching staff, it’s just more praise on the boy wonder from Clemson.

As for the rest of the draft, I would classify this as a decent crop of incoming talent. It’s certainly not like the classes we saw from 2010-2012 (that kind of stretch of talent comes once in a generation) but it’s also not the subpar classes of 2005 or 2015. My top ten overall big board breaks down as such:

2021 NFL Draft Big Board

1. New York Jets – Trevor Lawrence, QB | Clemson

A no-brainer pick, Lawrence is a prospect in the mode of John Elway and Andrew Luck. The Jets will find a way to not win anything while he’s their quarterback, but at least a little bit of hope is coming.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Justin Fields, QB | Ohio State

I think the debate at number two will expand rapidly during draft season, as Trey Lance and Zach Wilson are set for meteoric rises up draft boards. For now, Fields is the clear number two, though with a significant drop off from Lawrence.

3. Cincinnati Bengals – Penei Sewell, OT | Oregon

The Bengals front office should go ahead and get this card printed and laminated. They have their franchise QB in Joe Burrow, unfortunately, he is out for the season with a serious knee injury. He should be fit in time for the season opener in 2021. Regardless, this offensive line is atrocious and needs a massive overhaul. Sewell opted out of this year at Oregon, but just as Lawrence is a Elway-type prospect, Sewell, in my eyes, is a Walter Jones level prospect. He’ll be an elite blindside protector for Burrow for a decade.

4. Dallas Cowboys – Trey Lance, QB | NDSU

Let’s break it down. The Cowboys can say they are committed to Dak Prescott all they want, but until they ink him to a long-term deal, it should be taken with a heavy grain of salt. Additionally, part of their equation never included picking in the top five. Prescott was lost to a season ending injury this year, and while I expect him to come back solidly in 2021, Dallas finds itself in a position to take an elite prospect, sit him in 2021 while franchising Prescott once more, and moving on a to a cheaper signal caller in 2022. It makes too much sense.

5. L.A. Chargers – Patrick Surtain II, CB | Alabama

Surtain has been a model of consistency since he stepped foot on Alabama’s campus. Anthony Lynn is certain to no longer be coaching the Chargers soon. Getting a high quality guy to cover outside the hashes will help with LA’s stingy pass rush when everyone is healthy next season.

6. NY Giants – Ja’Marr Chase, WR | LSU

You need another year to really evaluate Daniel Jones. It looks like the Giants have found a functional head coach in Joe Judge. Next up, get Jones an elite weapon with top tier route running ability, an absurd catch radius, and big play potential every time he touches the ball, and you’ve got a chance to compete in a perennially mediocre division. With this pick, it’s kind of like they’re placing an elite wide receiver from LSU that they previously had on the roster.

7. Atlanta – Micah Parsons, LB | Penn State

The Falcons need to start thinking about life after Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, but the new front office may not be willing to completely start over. After all, there’s a legitimate argument to be made that this team should be 7-3 and contending for the NFC South crown. To contend under a new head coach, they need to address a host of issues – most notably their defense. Parsons is the third best prospect in this draft and is too good to pass up for a team that can use help at every defensive position. That, and there’s no edge rusher worth taking above him at this point in the draft.

8. Philadelphia Eagles – Jaylen Waddle, WR | Alabama

I don’t know what happened to Carson Wentz, but the Eagles cannot move on from him just yet because of the massive extension they gave out a couple years ago. The best next step is to finally get him some weapons on the outside. Waddle suffered a season-ending injury, but before then, showed the same explosiveness and reliable catch ability that we saw in year’s past. He’ll be an instant WR1 for a team in desperate need of it.

9. Detroit Lions – Zach Wilson, QB | BYU

It’s time to end the Matt Stafford era. The Lions finally parted ways to head coach Matt Patricia and GM Bob Quinn. The next step to respectability is a new signal caller. Wilson has been the best quarterback in college football this season and should be in the Heisman conversation. He’s got a big arm but even better accuracy. If you are looking for a new face to your franchise, you can do a lot worse.

10. Carolina Panthers – Kyle Pitts, TE | Florida

Pitts is a new age tight end in the mold of George Kittle. He’s an elite pass catching option that will compliment an offense in need of an additional target. Giving head coach Matt Rhule Pitts to go with Christian McCaffrey and Robby Anderson will help expand creativity to truly open the field for Teddy Bridgewater.

11. Miami (from HOU) – Gregory Rosseau, Edge | Miami(FL)

Of all the top end prospects that chose to opt-out this season, Rosseau seemingly had the most to lose. While he was a consensus top five projection in March, a large part of that projection was the expectation that he would duplicate his 2019 season. Without more tape, Rosseau doesn’t have the history to justify a top five selection.

12. Minnesota – Christian Barmore, IDL | Alabama

This team is a far cry from the one that beat New Orleans in the playoffs just eleven months ago. The needs are immense, yet the team isn’t quite bad enough to pick very high. Barmore isn’t creeping into the Quinnen Williams-esque prospect category, but his production in his redshirt sophomore season has proven consistent. Taking him this high is, in some ways, equally a bet on his potential as it is an ode to his production, but that’s what most of the draft is anyway.

13. New England – Caleb Farley, CB | VA Tech

Come February, there will be a lot of discussion about Farley being a better prospect than Surtain. I don’t know if I will ever agree, but he’ll be a high pick nonetheless. He’s got good size at 6’2, 207, and made a major leap from 2018 to 2019. There’s no 2020 tape on him (he opted-out) which may help him get a mythical rise as the shorts and t-shirt olympics begin this offseason.

14. San Francisco – Creed Humphrey, IOL | Oklahoma

Perhaps this is a reach, but Kyle Shanahan knows the importance of an elite offensive line. And while Florida QB Kyle Trask may be in consideration here, I expect the Niners to potentially find a way to land Kirk Cousins. Regardless, I don’t see them walking away from Jimmy Garappolo just yet. Humphrey has bounced back after taking a little drop off in his 2019 production.

15. Denver – Kwity Paye, Edge | Michigan

The jury is out on Drew Lock as a franchise QB, but he’s proven not to be bad enough to use the 15th pick on his replacement. I suspect Elway will be in playoffs or bust mode for 2021, and a top prospect at a position that can reasonably contribute immediately should be a priority. You wouldn’t know it from the win-loss column, but the Wolverines do have some NFL talent on their roster. Paye is perhaps the best.

16. Chicago – Kyle Trask, QB | Florida

Matt Nagy needs a quarterback, and Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles just aren’t it. I’m a documented fan of the Kyle Trask experience. He reminds me of Josh Allen, and the Bears already have a roster eerily similar to the Bills.

17. Miami – Rondale Moore, WR | Purdue

The Dolphins, surprisingly, have the nuts and bolts of a contender firmly in place, and while a developmental edge rusher would likely be one of a few final rebuilding pieces, Miami may elect to use this pick on someone that’s a threat to score every time they touch the ball. Enter Moore, who’s a do everything athlete with superior hands (114 catches his freshman season) and elite speed. He can also return kicks and punts, lineup in the backfield as a halfback or as a signal caller in the wildcat formation, and has an uncanny ability to create separation on the outside. At 5’9, 180, teams will be inclined to pigeonhole him into the slot, but make no mistake about it, Moore has the ability to be an elite WR2 and potentially WR1 at the next level.

18. Baltimore – Devonta Smith, WR | Alabama

The Ravens are lacking a lot of things compared to their juggernaut team of 2019, (interior offensive lineman, edge rushers) but no need is more glaring than their lack of talent at wide receiver. The issue isn’t whether or not Lamar Jackson can hit open guys (he’s shown that repeatedly) the problem is none of their receivers can get separation. They also drop a lot of passes. Smith will instantly take this offense to a new level with his reliable hands and explosiveness on the outside, opening up the middle more for Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown.

19. Washington – Alex Leatherwood, OT | Alabama

Dwayne Haskins clearly isn’t the answer, but Washington plays in a historically bad division, where five wins may be enough to make the playoffs. If they find a way to stay out the postseason, they’ll be in prime position to draft a franchise QB. Without that, they can sure up their offensive line and draft a replacement for the Trent Williams void they never filled.

20. Arizona – Shaun Wade, CB | Ohio State

Wade has been inconsistent this season, but I’m not ready to buy too much into that just yet. Jeff Okudah went third overall in last year’s draft, and Wade has been seen as the better player and prospect by many in that time. He probably doesn’t have too many more opportunities at new tape, however, and he risk the potential of falling behind other cornerback prospects like Jaycee Horn and Asante Samuel, Jr.

21. Las Vegas – Wyatt Davis, G | Ohio State

The Raiders have one of the better offensive lines in football, but it includes an older and perhaps soon to retire Richie Incognito, who was recently lost for the remainder of the season. Jon Gruden knows the importance of having a talented interior offensive line, and will look to address it with this pick.

22. Tampa Bay – Marvin Wilson, DT | Florida State

23. Indy – Walker Little, OT | Stanford

24. Cleveland – Terrace Marshal Jr., WR | LSU

25. NY Jets (from SEA) – Rashod Bateman, WR | Minnesota

The Jets got their franchise tackle in Mekhi Becton in last year’s draft. When you take your franchise quarterback, you should get him a weapon to go with. Bateman opted out of this season, then opted back in, and has now opted out once more. He sliced up Michigan’s secondary, however, and can play on the outside or in the slot. He has a large catch radius and should be a solid safety valve on third down for Lawrence.

26. Green Bay – Samuel Cosmi, OT | Texas

Regardless of whether it’s Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love at QB, the Packers need to ensure his protection. Cosmi this low in the first round would be an absolute steal, and help the Packers have one of the better offensive lines in football.

27. Tennessee – Brenton Cox Jr., Edge | Florida

28. Buffalo – Jaycee Horn, CB | South Carolina

29. Jacksonville (from LAR) – Liam Eichenberg, OT | Notre Dame

Notre Dame is a legit national title contender for a reason, and it starts with the talent they have in the trenches. Eichenberg has been a model of consistency the past two seasons for the Irish, and with a rematch against Clemson looming, as well as a potential semi-final playoff date with Alabama, Ohio State, or Texas A&M, he’ll have a shot at putting together tape that can further shoot him up draft boards.

30. Kansas City – Carlos Basham, Jr., Edge | Wake Forest

I originally had Basham as a top ten prospect, but he and Syracuse safety (my other pre-season top ten projection that has fallen out of the top 15) have fallen for different reasons. Cisco has an injury explanation. Basham just hasn’t played as well this season as he did last, and the Demon Deacons aren’t as talented across the board as they were in 2019, and that has to contribute in part. With Kansas City, he’d be in a position to come in and simply rush the passer while adjusting to the NFL game.

31. New Orleans – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB | Notre Dame

Explosive. Hard hitting. Can run end-to-end. Again, the Fighting Irish has a shot at beating an Alabama/Texas A&M/Georgia because of front seven players like Owusu-Koramoah. Will fit well into an already potent Saints defense.

32. Pittsburgh – Christian Darrisaw, OT | Virginia Tech

Second Round

33. Jets – Travis Etienne, RB | Clemson

34. Jaguars – Pat Freiermuth, TE | Penn State

35. Bengals – Trey Smith, IOL | Tennessee

36. Cowboys – Asante Samuel Jr., CB | Florida State

37. Giants – Dylan Moses, LB | Alabama

38. Falcons – Rashad Weaver, Edge | Pittsburgh

39. Chargers – Aidan Hutchinson, Edge | Michigan

40. Eagles – Tyson Campbell, CB | Georgia

41. Panthers – Rashawn Slater, OT | Northwestern

42. Dolphins (from HOU) – Tyler Linderbaum, IOL | Iowa

43. Lions – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | USC

44. Patriots – Levi Onwuzurike, DT | Washington

45. Niners – Ben Cleveland, IOL | Georgia

46. Broncos – Derion Kendrick, CB | Clemson

47. Jaguars (from MIN) – Chris Olave, WR | Ohio State

48. Bears – Jamie Newman, QB | Georgia

Not since Washington took Robert Griffin III in the first round and Kirk Cousins in the fourth have we seen a strategy like this employed, but if any team were to try it again, this version of the Bears are a perfect case study. Chicago has Super Bowl ready roster yet haven’t won a playoff game recently. Their ineptness at the QB position has lead to a drop in play and production from their defense, as well as wide receiver Allen Robinson. The Bears also need help along the offensive line, so they could elect to go with a number of different options here, but the best way to try and make up for the stain of moving up for Mitchell Trubisky is to give yourself an even greater shot at finding an upgraded replacement.

49. Ravens – Andre Cisco, S | Syracuse

50. Dolphins – Jevon Holland, CB |Oregon

51. Washington – Tylan Wallace, WR | Oklahoma State

52. Raiders – Mike Jones Jr., S | Clemson

53. Cardinals – Quincy Roche, Edge | Miami (FL)

54. Bucs – Jayson Oweh, Edge | Penn State

55. Browns – Elijah Molden, CB | Washington

56. Colts – Nick Bolton, LB | Missouri

57. Packers – Sage Surratt, WR | Wake Forest

58. Titans – Tyler Shelvin, DT | LSU

59. Bills – Abraham Lucas, OT | Washington State

60. Seahawks – Brady Christensen, OT | BYU

61. Rams – Jordan Smith, Edge | UAB

62. Chiefs – Jaelon Darden, WR | North Texas

63. Saints – Tutu Atwell, WR | Louisville

64. Steelers – Najee Harris, RB | Alabama

Frederick CurtisNovember 30, 2020Comment