SEC Preview - Saban Still Reigns, but the Dawgs (and Tigers) are Close

Admittedly, the SEC is a tremendous football conference. I grew up a Florida State fan. Because of that, I have a slight adoration for the ACC as a whole, one that has caused me to have a little negative bias toward the Southeastern conference over the years. While I still don’t think the SEC is the deepest conference (a distinction I give to the Big Ten) there’s no arguing it’s the best conference in college football.

One of the major reasons why is the presence of Nick Saban. Since his arrival in Tuscaloosa, nearly everything in the conference has changed except him, and a huge part of the dominance of the SEC this decade has been because of the machine he runs at Alabama. The dynasty feels closer to demise than it ever has before.

There’s no debating that Kirby Smart has built a fantastic roster at UGA. The most important unanswered question for the Dawgs is if they can beat Alabama when it counts, which is a huge if. The “they were only one play away” argument just doesn’t work. If just one play goes differently in each of Tom Brady’s Super Bowl wins, he could have nine Super Bowl rings, or be 0-9 in the Super Bowl. It is quite literally a game of inches.

The rest of the conference is just as intriguing as in year’s past, including Florida probably being overhyped, Tennessee primed to finally improve, and LSU dealing with the hard fact that if they weren’t in the SEC West, they’d be a consensus CFP playoff pick. Oh, and there’s an outside chance one team in the conference goes undefeated — and doesn’t even play in a bowl game.

SEC East

Vanderbilt (4-8, 1-7)

Kentucky (7-5, 3-5)

Tennessee (8-4, 4-4)

The Volunteers have the best quarterback you’ve never heard about in Jarret Guarantanno. The fourth ranked recruiting class Butch Jones managed in 2015 didn't pan out, but that’s a larger testament to the former head coach and his inability to hire the right staff to develop that talent. Their 2017 class includes top ten NFL Draft prospect Trey Smith, along with a host of other guys that have the benefit of two offseason’s under new head coach Jeremy Pruitt and his staff. It’s Pruitt’s second year in charge, which is the year you see if a college coach is elite, good or mediocre. I’m banking on Pruitt being a notch below the elite, which still comes with a noticeable turnaround and flirtation with title contention every few years. He’ll be able to take the Vols from 5-7 to 8-4. We’re going to talk about this team waaayyyyy too much next offseason.

South Carolina (7-5, 4-4)

Florida (8-4, 4-4)

I’m not sold on the Florida love. They are not a top ten team in the country. The defense is exceptional and will keep the Gators in a lot of games, but the offense still isn’t there. I firmly believe Dan Mullen is the right guy for the job and will eventually get Florida back to being an SEC title contender, but he’ll need a top conference QB to do that, at least in the vein of Nick Fitzgerald. Feliepe Franks just isn’t that guy, and the Gators most talented player at QB is probably true freshman Jalon Jones. Not sure what the long term plan is, but this year’s offensive limitations are likely to stifle their program growth on the field.

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Missouri (10-2, 6-2)

Kelly Bryant’s decision to play college ball in Colombia this year was a huge pickup for Tigers head coach Barry Odom. I don’t really believe that Missouri is the second best team in the SEC East, I just think their schedule works out in a way that can allow them to win nine or ten games. Their toughest stretch is November 9 and 16, where they go at Georgia and host Florida in back-to-back weeks. I can’t see them winning either of those, but the rest of the schedule works out for a double digit season. Now if only the NCAA can get their stuff together and just let the players have a bowl game.

Georgia (11-1, 7-1)

UGA could legitimately be playing for their third straight national title this season. That’s how good they have been the last two seasons. It’s how good they are this year. They lost a lot of talent to the NFL, but when you recruit the way Smart has since his arrival, you simply reload.

Jake Fromm at quarterback brings experience and the talent of a first round draft pick. UGA’s offensive line is the best in college football, and De’Andre Swift is my pick to win the Heisman. The offense lost a lot of weapons, but this crop of receivers will likely end up better before this class is done. The Dawgs will be back in the playoff hunt, they just have to get over the Bama hump.

SEC West

Arkansas (4-8, 0-8)

Ole Miss (4-8, 2-6)

Mississippi State (6-6, 2-6)

Auburn (7-5, 3-5)

Gus Malzahn’s coaching seat is a hot flaming inferno of a fire. It’ll get worse by Thanksgiving. Malzahn’s biggest problem is his program is in the SEC West. In the East, as is the case for Texas A&M and LSU, they’d be a for sure second place and could challenge Georgia for first with a few breaks here and there. In the West, Auburn needs a lot of luck accompanied with some really good football consistency on both sides of it. It also helps not to start a true freshman unless his name is Trevor or Jameis, but growing up in the South, your name can’t get much cooler than Bo Nix. The pressure will be a sky high after an opening weekend win over Oregon.

Texas A&M (8-4, 6-2)

Jimbo Fisher came to Texas A&M to win a national title. The problem is the greatest coach in the history of the sport still works there, and a host of other elite programs (LSU, Georgia) also play football there. I honestly can’t see Fisher ever consistently recruiting with the likes of Saban and Smart. Texas recruiting soil is arguably the richest in the nation, but to take the Aggies where he and the adminstation desperately want to go, he’s got to find a way to land a true difference maker at the quarterback position. Fisher is not going to out-Saban Nick Saban or out-Smart Kirby Smart with a slew of first round NFL Draft prospects on the offensive and defensive line. They’ve recruited well in both units, but keeping pace with those two programs is unrealistic. Therefore, it remains imperative that Fisher find a way to land a transcendent talent at quarterback (alas Jameis Winston) and surround him with extremely talented weapons on the outside. Current quarterback Kellen Mond, though very good, is not that guy.

LSU (10-2, 6-2)

Of all my SEC picks, this is the one I think is most likely to be wrong. From a talent perspective, LSU is just an inch below the country’s big boys in Alabama, Clemson and Georgia. What’s even bigger is that they return 82 percent of their offensive production from a year ago, and 70 percent of their defensive production. They also welcome in the nation’s fifth ranked recruiting class, and the 2017 class, which ranked seventh in the nation, is now a crop of juniors and seniors. Add in another year of experience for quarterback Joe Burrow, and the nation’s best safety in Grant Delpit, and you’ve got a recipe not just for a really good team, but for a program that should be considered one of the top national title contenders in the country. I want to pick them to win it all, I really do, but they haven’t beaten you know who in a while….

Alabama (11-1, 7-1)

Nick Saban and the Tide just kind of go wherever they want to go in the country, nab the best recruits, do an exceptional job coaching and developing, and then send guys off to the NFL.

It’s true the Tide have found a worthy adversary in Clemson, but it’s also true their in-conference rivals are slowly catching up. LSU and UGA are legitimate contenders to dethrone Alabama’s conference dominance, and traveling to Auburn for the Iron Bowl is never something to take for granted. All that being said, Alabama still sports one of the top two rosters in all the nation, they have a soon-to-be top five pick at quarterback in Tua Tagavolia, and they get to play LSU at home. If they do trip up, which I expect them to do because going undefeated in back-to-back seasons is really hard to do, I’d bank on the October 12 date at Texas A&M. Still, it’s safe to use a sharpie when placing them in the CFB Playoff right alongside Clemson.

SEC Championship Game: Alabama over Georgia, 29-27