Our 2019 College Football Preview continues as we take a look at the Big Ten conference. You can access our ACC Preview here.

Jim Harbaugh arrived in Ann Arbor in 2015 to much fan fare. The Wolverines had struggled to live up to their status as one of the kingpins of college football. After turning Stanford into a perennial powerhouse, and coaching a 49ers team that was a Super Bowl contender for nearly his entire tenure, many assumed it would only be a matter of time before Michigan were back to winning conference titles and competing for national ones.

Since then, he’s posted a very quality 38-14 overall record, guiding the Wolverines to two New Year’s Six Bowl appearances in the last four years. 95% of FBS programs would do a lot of illegal things to post a .731 winning percentage over four seasons. But Michigan isn’t 95% of programs, it’s one of the few elite in a sport that exemplifies haves and haves not. And, to top it all off, Harbaugh has failed to do the one thing that matters most in Ann Arbor: BEAT Ohio State.

It’s put up or shut up time for Harbaugh. While the narrative that “he wasn't won anything” is obtuse, it is true that he hasn’t lived up to the expectations of many around the program, especially the athletic department. Unless Dabo Swinney or Nick Saban suddenly want a new challenge, Michigan will not find another head coach better than the one they currently have, but that won’t stop fans, the media and boosters from wondering “what if” should Michigan lose to Ohio State again this November.

Ohio State, meanwhile, ushers in a new era with Ryan Day as head coach and Justin Fields the new quarterback from UGA. For all the attention the powerhouses at the top of the conference receive, this conference is incredibly deep, and the best team top to bottom likely resides in State College.

The issue the Big Ten is probably going to have once again is the depth of the conference. It’s cool to brag about how good your conference is, but it’s better when you can brag about it in the way the SEC has for two decades. Meaning, have some really good programs at the top, and a bunch of mediocre to below average ones everywhere else, to help elevate the perception of the conference. The top two or three programs in the SEC have always been hugely better than the others. This season, the Big Ten faces the challenge of actually having quality programs from spots four to eleven. Being a deep conference is good for narratives, but it makes running the table or even losing just one conference game a daunting task for the blue bloods in Columbus, Ann Arbor and State College. The top three teams in the East should be playoff contenders, but to avoid being left out of the four team party as a conference, one needs to have some incredible fortune along the way.

Big Ten West

The Big Ten West is by far the deepest division in all of college football. (I was tempted to make the proverbial Wild West joke there, but I had some self restraint.)

Illinois (3-9, 1-8)

Purdue (7-5, 5-4)

Wisconsin (8-4, 5-4)

Illinois is the only team in this division that has no shot of winning it.

Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm is the real deal, and he’s done a fairly good job of upping the talent base in West Layfette. Rondale Moore is a human joystick and a threat to score each time he touches the football, and he is likely to build off his 2,000+ all purpose yard season from 2018. The Boilermakers also secured their highest ranked recruiting class in nearly 15 years. Both the present and future are bright at Purdue.

Wisconsin is a staple of long-term success. There’s not a whole lot of fanciness to them. They just get the job done. They have the best player in the conference in Jonathon Taylor (player, not NFL prospect) and should bulldoze their way to another seven or eight win season. Finding some more explosiveness in the passing game will be the key in attempting to take a seven or eight win team to nine or ten wins and a true shot at the Rose Bowl. I don’t see that happening.

Northwestern (7-5, 5-4)

The Big Ten West is like this fairytale place where really good coaches go and stay for 15 years. In between, they may be national title contenders out of nowhere once or twice, but turn in seven to ten win seasons 12 out of the 15 years. It’s not a bad gig if you can get, and in the case of Pat Fitzgerald, there’s no need to rush and go. Fitzgerald is entering his 15th season as head coach in Evanston and coming off a division title. He’s won at least nine games in three of the last four seasons, and it helps that the Northwestern administration seem to be realistic about the limitations of their football program.

I just hate the Wildcats’ schedule this season. They start at Stanford, and after a visit from UNLV, their next six games read like this: Michigan State, at Wisconsin, at Nebraska, Ohio State, Iowa.

OUCH.

Iowa (8-4, 5-4)

Every six or seven years, Kirk Ferentz posts a double digit win season, a conference title, and a berth in the Orange or Rose Bowl. The Hawkeyes flirt with national title contention, only to come back down to earth late in the year. Iowa sends elite prospects on the offensive line and at tight end to the NFL, and the Hawkeyes remain one of the most consistent programs in college football.

Rinse. Repeat.

Once again, Iowa will challenge for a Big Ten West crown. Nate Stanley returns at quarterback for his third year as starter, and defensive end A.J. Epenesa will be a top ten pick in May. Take out the loss to Wisconsin last season, and the Hawkeyes’ other three losses were by a combined 12 points. Those things even out from year-to-year. Don’t be surprised if Iowa plays for the conference crown.

Minnesota (8-4, 5-4)

Scott Frost at Nebraska gets all of the recent hire coaching love in the Big Ten, but P.J. Fleck and his boat aren’t too far behind. He struggled to a 5-7 record his first season, but took some steps forward last year, finishing the season with a win in the Quick Lane Bowl to go 7-6. More importantly, Fleck and his staff have vastly improved the Golden Gophers talent, athleticism and depth, improving the program’s recruiting rankings from 59th in 2017 to 38th in 2018, according to 247Sports recruiting rankings. For the Gophers to really contend for a Big Ten title, Fleck will likely need one more year to keep developing that 2018 class, but there’s no reason to believe they can’t contend for a Big Ten championship game appearance now.

On offense, the Gophers return 90 percent of their 2018 production, which ranks fourth in the nation. Defensive production returning isn’t as high, but with 66 percent of production returning, Minnesota is still in the driver’s seat for strong improvement. The strength of the Big Ten West may impede any huge jumps in the win column, but the Gophers should play all the way up to the last week of the regular season with a chance to go to Indy.

Nebraska (8-4, 5-4)

Consider me the captain of the Scott Frost bandwagon. I support it. I’m all on it. I don’t know if the Huskers will ever get back to the national prominence they experienced decades ago, but I do know this – if Scott Frost can’t make Nebraska a national title contender again, they need to accept their new reality. If he can’t do it, no one not named Nicholas or Dabo can.

Elite coaches make massive leaps their second season in charge, and that will be true for the Huskers. Quarterback Adrian Martinez is primed for a monster year. After a rocky 0-5 start, Nebraska finished 4-8, losing those last three games by a combined 11 points. Those last three losses came to division winner Northwestern, the talent rich Ohio State, and a balanced Iowa team. All three also came on the road.

I love the way Nebraska’s schedule works out too. They should be 4-0 heading into a September 28 showdown in Lincoln against Ohio State. Elite coaches normally have program defining wins in their second year to signal the improvement. That’s a date to circle, but as it concerns the Big Ten West race, the Huskers get Northwestern, Wisconsin and Iowa at home. I smell a division title.

Big Ten East

Rutgers (2-10, 0-9)

Indiana (4-8, 1-8)

I’m not spending a lot of time writing about Rutgers and Indiana. Sorry.

Maryland (4-8, 2-7)

Mike Locksely has a heck of a job on his hands rebuilding the program in College Park. The good news is he’s a DMV guy with DMV roots, an area that has a fairly rich recruiting base from which to build upon. The Terps rank 70th in overall production returning, according to Bill Connelly and S&P+ projections. But when you’re not good, being in the middle of the pack nationally in returning production isn’t the worst. Locksely’s biggest indefinite challenge is that he has to recruit against ACC and Big Ten powerhouses, and has to play Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan every single year. Locksley could prove to be one thousand times better than he was during his tenure at New Mexico, but we might not ever know it. If he sticks around four years and wins 10 games in year four, he’s a saint.

Michigan State (8-4, 5-4)

In 13 seasons in East Lansing, Mark Dantonio has compiled seven winning seasons. Only ten programs have made the College Football Playoff, and aside from Chris Petersen in Washington, the Spartans’ participation in the tournament is the most impressive. They were 36-5 from 2013-2015 before a precipitous drop in 2016 posted a 3-9 year. In a sport that is largely determined by the competence of head coaches, you sometimes make predictions for teams based solely on a coaches tract record. That, and Sparty posted the second ranked defense last season, according to football outsiders and the S&P+.

Though they only bring back just over half of that production, I am trusting that two things ring true: (1) That the 17th ranked recruiting class Dantonio brought in in 2016 blossoms and that, (2) He and his staff continue to develop NFL Draft picks on defense. Watch for Sparty to pull an upset or two.

Ohio State (10-2, 7-2)

Since Dwight Eisenhower was in the Oval Office, the Buckeys have had seven head football coaches, and that includes one year of Luke Fickell after the Jim Tressel fallout. This program is a model of stability and excellence. To say Ryan Day has some large shoes to fill is a massive understatement. Day’s success this season will be heavily dependent on the successful assimilation of quarterback Justin Fields. Fields, a transfer from UGA, didn’t see the field much in Athens behind soon-to-be first rounder Jake Fromm. He is immensely talented (no one can question that) but there are several unknown factors about a teenager that plays the sports most important position. Notably, he chose UGA over several other options and then transferred when he didn’t see the field. Did Fields and his inner circle really think he was going to unseat Fromm as the starter?

How Field’s respond in big game situations will be key to Day’s success this season. The good news is their most challenging road trip doesn’t come until the last week of the season in Ann Arbor. With that said, Ohio State better be ready to pay a visit to the Huskers on September 28. The Bucks get a chance to work out any kinks on opening weekend at home against Florida Atlantic. (A good Sun Belt team that can score points but won’t really challenge Ohio State.) They better be up for that noon kickoff with Cincinnati the following week.

Penn State (10-2, 7-2)

James Franklin is one the best coaches in the country. To be a top college football coach, you have to be a top recruiter. James Franklin is a top recruiter.

Penn State brought in the sixth best class in the country in 2018. Those guys are either sophomores or redshirt freshman now, and when you couple that with a coaching change at Ohio State and uncertainty in East Lansing, the Nittany Lions are primed for a Rose Bowl berth this season, and legitimate national title contention next year.

Quarterback Sean Clifford doesn’t have much experience, but he’ll have some playmakers to get the ball to. Penn State could end up relying heavily on true freshman and sophomores at wide receiver, but that is probably a good thing, because their upperclassmen struggled mightily to catch the ball last season. Along the most important unit in football (offensive line), Penn State brings back three starters. They should be 5-0 before a three week of stretch of at Iowa, Michigan, and at Michigan State ultimately defines their season.

Michigan (11-1, 8-1)

Quarterback Shea Patterson is back. 63% of last year’s defensive production is also back, a high mark for a team that sends as many defenders to the NFL Draft as Michigan. Those are the positives. On the flip side, a great defense just isn’t enough to win in college football nowadays. The Wolverines had the 9th ranked defense in the country last season according to S&P+ rankings. The Michigan offensive ranking? 25th. Alabama, Georgia, Clemson and Oklahoma, respectively, ranked one through four. Defense is of so little consequence over the grand scheme of the season that Oklahoma managed a conference title and playoff appearance with the 84th ranked defense. Notre Dame, who didn’t belong in the playoff but had to be included because of political and business purposes, had the 33rd ranked offense in the nation. At the end of the day, defense does not win championships.

Knowing things needed to change on that side of the football, Harbaugh brought in new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. Gattis comes over having worked at college football’s premier corporation at the University of Alabama as a wide receivers coach. He’s bringing a more uptempo, spread attack to Michigan that Harbaugh should have transitioned to upon his return to college. In that vein, Patterson should thrive all season long in that system, and he’s got a capable backup in Dylan McCaffrey should he miss some time.

Every Big Ten schedule is tough, but Michigan’s is manageable. They go to Camp Randall after a bye week, but go at Penn State and host Notre Dame in consecutive weeks at the end of October. (I’ve got the Nittany Lions beating Michigan) The Wolverines also better be ready to play a noon kickoff game in week two against Army, a 10 win team from a year ago that should have beaten Oklahoma in Norman.

At the end of the day, it’s the November 30 showdown at the Big House that will determine the entire landscape for the Wolverines. I think Harbaugh finally gets over the hump.

Big Ten Championship Game: Michigan over Nebraska, 34-29

Big Ten Preview – The Only Game that Matters is Michigan-Ohio State

Big Ten West

Big Ten East

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