The Week 12 – CFB Power 16
What a week! This Saturday opened a highly anticipated November slate with two top-ten matchups that didn’t disappoint. The topline takeaways? The NCAA is a trash organization, the Pac-12 is still in this thing, and the worst case scenario happened for Georgia. A few disclaimers:
These are my rankings, not what I expect from the playoff committee on a weekly basis, which is a different column. It’s a mixture of eye test, analytics, season results and objective progression. For close calls, I ask myself a simple question: On a neutral field, do I think team A or team B will win?
I reference Bill Connelly’s S&P+ Analytics quite frequently. It’s not a bible, and I don’t base my rankings on it (one glance at his will show you we disagree on quite a few things) but it’s a quality check and balance of sorts on my personal opinion of teams. You can find his Week 11 rankings here.
This isn’t an exact art or science. I may have teams ranked ahead of another team that I think they would be beat on a neutral field. That said, taking into account losses, overall strength of schedule, conference depth and upcoming games creates a fun, imperfect dynamic.
The Final Four
1. LSU
The latest version of Game of the Century did not disappoint. It was worth every bit of hype, and potentially sets us up for a part two in the CFP Semi-Final. Joe Burrow seemingly put the Heisman race to bed with an immaculate performance, and the Tigers look poised to steamroll to the SEC Title Game. Neither of the top contenders in the East Division (UGA or Florida) have a shot at dethroning the Tigers. This team is locked in at number one and my odds on favorite to win the national championship.
2. Ohio State
As expected, the Buckeyes made light work of the Terrapins in emphatic fashion, but the real story was the suspension of star defensive end Chase Young. Young is the consensus #1 overall prospect in the 2020 NFL Draft, and an absolute terror off the edge for Ohio St. He didn’t play Saturday, and it doesn’t look like he will play in the Bucks final three games. Ohio State won’t need him against Rutgers, but his absence could be felt against Penn St, and maybe even Michigan.
The NCAA has shown time and time again they care nothing about players and are a bottom line, for-profit industry, but it doesn’t make the hypocrisy of situations like this any less appalling. If Young now decides he doesn’t want to suit up in the Big Ten Title Game or the CFP Semi-Finals, some media outlets will portray him as the bad guy for “quitting” on his teammates. To say it’s a shame would be a massive understatement, and one can only hope that sweeping change is soon coming to one of the country’s most abhorrent organizations.
3. Clemson
(Let’s out a huge siiiiigggghhhhhhh) Clemson kept on rolling, this time with a 55-10 win over an NC State team that has failed to even breathe in the right direction of some of the pre-season expectations. I don’t have much more to say about Clemson, except that a much deserving team from a much better conference is going to be left out of the playoff solely because Clemson has been good over the past several seasons. Is what it is.
4. Oregon
5. Utah
Long live the Pac-12! On a weekend where both conference leaders were idle, they seemingly benefited from chaos at the top of the rankings. Both the Ducks and Utes will be heavy favorites in each of their last three regular season games, which should set-up an epic Pac 12 Title Game in Santa Clara. That’s the good news. The bad news is that neither can afford for the other slip up on the way either, less you leave room for the committee to give a second look at a one-loss Alabama. Oregon’s lone remaining landmine? A November 23 trip to the desert against the Fighting Herm Edwards’. The Utes should’t lose to anyone left on their schedule, but I would circle that same weekend for them, when they visit Kevin Sumlin’s Arizona Wildcats. The Cats have looked absolutely terrible during their four game losing streak, but they still have Khalil Tate at QB. If focused, Oregon and Utah should play the season out undefeated in comfortable fashion… IF focused.
6. Alabama
There’s no way you watched that game to the end and came away thinking there are five or six other teams in the country better than Alabama. The Tide won’t win the SEC West, which means they won’t win the SEC title, and I honestly don’t care. What you get with expansion is woefully imbalanced scheduling and divisions within conferences that are absurdly stacked. (SEC West, Big Ten East) With that said, Alabama’s schedule certainly leaves more to be desired. The two teams ranked ahead of them in my rankings will sort themselves out. What Alabama now has to hope for is the eventual Pac-12 Champion (very likely either Oregon or Utah) to slip-up again in one of their final three regular season games. I don’t see that happening, which might leave Saint Nick out of the playoff party for the first time ever. Alabama, however, can’t start lobbying the committee yet, as the Iron Bowl is at Auburn this season, and they best be ready for that one.
7. Georgia
If wins matter, loses matter too, and I’m just not letting UGA off the hook for such a disgusting home loss. That said, the Dawgs are in the driver seat, as they get a chance at a very high quality win this weekend at Auburn, and then presumably another shot in the SEC Title Game against LSU. Win both of those, and of course all is forgiven. But sandwiched between a visit to the Plains and the annual Clean, Old Fashioned Hate is a late season, curveball visit from Texas A&M. Let’s just say the Gators aren’t completely out of the East race just yet.
8. Minnesota
9. Penn State
Minnesota was for real before this week, and the fact that a bunch of people responsible for ranking teams and determining the allocation and distribution of millions of dollars had them at 17 is beyond me. While it was a program changing/shifting/making win for the Gophers, Power 5 conference contenders earn their keep not by doing what P.J. Flecks’ boys did this past Saturday, but by doing that and then following it up with wins over quality opponents. Wisconsin is a good football team, but if you’re a top ten team, as I’ve had Minnesota for a couple weeks, that’s a game you find a way to win.
It was a tough loss for the Penn State, but everything they want to accomplish is still right in front of them. They host a very good Indiana team at Noon this Saturday, and then the big one at The Horseshoe. Win out, and you’ll get a revenge shot at Minnesota with a probable playoff berth on the line.
Photo retrieved here
10. Oklahoma
11. Baylor
The Sooners and Bears did their darnest to give away games this weekend, spoil a huge Saturday night game in Waco, and completely put to bed the Big 12’s hope of making the playoff. They both squeaked out nail biters, preserving the hype around Saturday Night Football this week. Jalen Hurts started the season in firm control of the Heisman race, then cooled off. To get back in the playoff picture, Hurts need to be exceptional down the stretch, and the Sooners (or Bears) need a few teams in front of them to lose. Charlie Brewer still has the juice, although maybe not as much after two nail biting wins for the Bears. Baylor, however, presents an interesting case study. Should the Bears win Saturday, and win their final two regular season games against Kansas and Texas, it’ll likely set up a rematch with Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game. Could an undefeated Baylor be left out of the playoff?
12. Florida
13. Auburn
Florida has the most impressive two loss resume in the country, but the problem is, they still have two losses. While winning the East is a bit far fetched, the Gators will have a quality claim to, and likely receive, a New Year’s Six Bowl bid. On the other hand, Auburn still has a ton to play for. While the Tigers aren’t going to catch LSU in the West, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that they could find themselves in playoff contention even without an SEC Title Game appearance, provided they can pull upsets over two top ten teams in Georgia this Saturday and Alabama during the Iron Bowl. Wins over both of those programs would be enough to catapult them into the top six or seven, at which point, anything is possible.
14. Memphis
15. Cincinatti
Memphis sat idle after last weekend’s huge victory over SMU, and now gear up for back-to-back road games against Houston and USF. Cincinnati expectedly steamrolled Connecticut this week in advance of a visit to USF. With how the AAC scheduling breaks down the final weeks, I expect the Bearcats to have the chance to win the AAC West in the season finale against Memphis, at which, point, we’d get a rematch the following week in the AAC Title Game. Even though Boise State still lurks as a potential Group of 5 party crasher, it’s clear after the Broncos stuggles with Wyoming that the American is the vastly superior conference. The conference champion should secure the NY6 berth.
16. Michigan
Oh, the Wolverines. They’re out of the race in the Big Ten East, but have showed signs of improvement in the weeks following the loss to Penn State. All of that’s a really cool story, and they best be ready to lineup against Michigan State this weekend and then Indiana the next, but we all know the only thing that matters at this point is the Ohio State game. Good luck with that.
Next Six: Wisconsin, SMU, Indiana, Navy, Appalachian State, Iowa