The Week 11 – CFB Power 16
Since the inception of the College Football Playoff, it’s become apparent that November and December are the only months of the season that truly matter, and now the race to the top four is on. Here’s the Week 11 CFB Power 16. A few disclaimers:
These are my rankings, not what I expect from the playoff committee on a weekly basis, which is a different column. It’s a mixture of eye test, analytics, season results and objective progression. For close calls, I ask myself a simple question: On a neutral field, do I think team A or team B will win? The answer to that question helped me sort through a dilemma between 1 vs 2 this week
I reference Bill Connelly’s S&P+ Analytics quite frequently. It’s not a bible, and I don’t base my rankings on it (one glance at his will show you we disagree on quite a few things) but it’s a quality check and balance of sorts on my personal opinion of teams. You can find his Week 11 rankings here.
The Final Four
1. LSU
I was torn between the Tigers and Buckeyes at the top. The committee gave the nod to Ohio State in the first playoff rankings, and it’s a decision I can’t really argue with. Nonetheless, I hopped on the “LSU is the best team in the nation train” long before any of the national pundits did, and I am going to stay there until I have a reason not to. Of course, that reason could come this Saturday when the Tigers visit the Tide. Alabama has owned LSU of late, but this is the best Tigers team this decade. The most recent version of the Game of the Century should live up to the hype.
2. Ohio State
Anyone not willing to give Ohio State their due at this point simply has personal bias against them. The common argument is to say the Buckeyes haven’t played anyone, but that simply isn’t true. Indiana is 7-2 and was throttled 51-10 by the Bucks. Cincinnati is one of my top 15 teams, and Ohio St shut them out. At Nebraska? At Northwestern? Wisconsin at home? All three wins by a combined score of 138-17. To be honest, LSU is number one, but the Buckeyes are 1A.
3. Alabama
If anyone in my top four hasn’t played anyone, it’s Alabama, with their lone win over a ranked opponent having come against a perennially overrated Texas A&M squad at home. Now that it’s November, however, none of that really matters. If the Tide win out this month, which would obviously include a massive home victory over LSU this Saturday, followed up in a few weeks with an Iron Bowl victory, they’ll play for the SEC title, and likely earn another berth in the College Football Playoff.
4. Penn State
The Nittany Lions have put together one of the quietest playoff contending regular seasons I can remember, at least up to this point. They have solid resume wins over Michigan, Iowa and Michigan State, and go into November in complete control of every single destiny they can imagine. Conventional wisdom will have them looking forward to Ohio State, but I think James Franklin and his team know just how big of a game they have this coming Saturday at Minnesota. It’s a matchup of two top ten teams according to me and the S&P+.
The Playoff Contenders
5. Clemson
I’ve kind of been over Clemson all season long. They’ve got such superior talent across the board, especially in the ACC, that I don’t see them losing a game. That said, if they played any of my top four teams on a neutral field this weekend, I would be comfortable predicting them to lose by at least ten. That’s the luxury of building such a dominant program – after a while, you only have to look marginally good to get a shot at the title, and that’s got to be worth something…. right?
6. Oregon
There are lots of frustrating things about the Ducks, most notably is the continued wondering of what might be in front of them had they found a way to beat Auburn in week one and not simply play them close. Lucky for them (and their conference foe, Utah) the Pac-12 is relatively deep this season, and the CFB Playoff Committee agrees with said assessment. LSU and Alabama can’t both go unbeaten. Neither can Penn State and Ohio State, which leaves room for the Pac-12 to make a return to the playoff, provided the Ducks or Utes win out. Stay tuned for some left coast love (or bias…)
7. Oklahoma
8. Georgia
I’m lumping these two together because they are going to be linked like a couple the rest of the regular season. The simple bottom line is that Georgia has the worst loss of any top ten team thus far season, and it is NOT remotely close. South Carolina is a sub .500 team with losses to North Carolina, Missouri and Tennessee. The Volunteers don’t even have a competent head coach. The Sooners loss came on the road against a well coached football team currently ranked in top 16. That said, UGA has many more opportunities for quality data points, with a road trip to Auburn on the schedule following last weekend’s top ten win over Florida. Throw in the SEC Title game, and the Dawgs still maintain a credible shot at a playoff berth. The Sooners need quite a few things to break right, including beating Baylor but having the Bears finish with just one loss. Even then, that might leave Oklahoma facing a rematch with the Bears in the Big 12 Title Game, which may not serve much purpose in furtherance of a playoff bid. Long story short, to get back in the playoff race, the Sooners need some much needed November chaos to take place.
The “Yes, There’s a Chance….”
University of Minnesota (retrieved here)
9. Utah
10. Minnesota
I picked Utah to make the playoff at the beginning of the year, and had Minnesota as a sleeper. The Utes are keeping my dim predictions hanging by a thread, while the Gophers are in line to win the Big Ten West one year earlier than I expected. Utah should breeze unbeaten to the Pac-12 Title Game, where they should face Oregon to determine the likely fourth and final playoff participant. (After last season, I simply don’t think the politics and backroom powers that be will allow for the conference to be kept out of the playoff again if their conference champ only has one loss.) The playoff committee hates the Gophers for some reason, ranking them all the way down at 17, which is ridiculously harsh. Lucky enough, Minnesota has the biggest game of the program’s history this Saturday to help show they belong. I just hate the game kicks at 11 am local time and isn’t under the lights.
Best of the Rest
11. Florida
12. Baylor
13. Auburn
The Gators, Bears and Tigers (only thing missing in this sentence are Lions) have cemented themselves as the Main Cabin class of the Power 5, which means they’re not good enough to actually win their conference championship, but too good to be overlooked as teams that can really spoil the eventual top four. It also means that at least one, and likely two of them, will be snubbed for a New Year’s Six Bowl bid. It kind of sucks, because in the era of imbalanced scheduling, Florida and Auburn just got the short end of the stick this year. Baylor, on the contrary, is a year ahead of schedule under Matt Rhule, ranking nine spots higher in defensive efficiency than offensive effieicny, a far cry from those cupcake filling, shootout throwing, can’t stop a soul days of Art Briles. I don’t think the Bears (under Rhule) or Gators (under Dan Mullen) can win conference titles this year, but I would have my eye on them moving forward. Baylor best be ready for that 11 am local kick this Saturday against TCU.
14. Kansas State
15. Cincinatti
16. Memphis
The playoff committee unjustifiably hates Minnesota, but perhaps has Kansas State rated way too high, as the Wildcats come in as the 32nd ranked team in the S&P+. Who’s #33? Texas, who K-State visits this Saturday. Cincinnati has won seven in a row since being shutout by Ohio State, and should cruise to 10-1 before facing Memphis in the regular season finale, which could be the first of two matchups between the two in back-to-back weeks. And speaking of Memphis, College Gameday and Saturday Night Football delivered an absolute treat this past weekend as the Tigers marched past SMU. The energy, at least from what I saw on television, was electric, and the game ended up being more entertaining then most of the Saturday showcase offerings ABC has offered to date this season. The American Athletic Conference is slowly building what I think can be a football juggernaut in a decade or so.