The Super Bowl is (Finally) Here....Almost
Photo Credit: Getty Images | https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2018/12/17/nfl-rams-jared-goff-sean-mcvay-fumble-decision/
Ever since the Super Bowl went to a permanent bye week structure in 2003, it seems like an eternity stretches between Championship Sunday and the big game. But there is in-fact a moment when kickoff takes place, and it’s almost here. Here’s your one stop shop to prep for Sunday’s matchup.
Key Players for Rams
Todd Gurley, RB
Gurley being a key player shouldn’t be news during any other week, but it is this week because Gurley has been dealing with a nagging knee injury. That knee injury seemingly prevented him from receiving more snaps during theNFC Championship game. Some would argue he was benched because CJ Anderson was simply outplaying him, but that’s ridiculous. If Gurley is at full tilt, his presence in the passing game is a nightmare matchup for New England’s linebackers. McVay will be tasked with mixing up the play calling when Gurley and Anderson are in to keep the Patriot’s defense guessing.
Jared Goff, QB
Goff’s numbers were very impressive last week against the Saints in the NFC title game. In only his second playoff appearance, Goff outplayed the future Hall of Famer Drew Brees in his own building. The passing numbers look very similar from a bird’s eye view, but Goff made the most plays when his team really needed it. If the offensive line can hold up against Belichick’s pass rush, Goff should have another big day through the air.
Marcus Peters, DB
Peters has built two different reputations for himself since he’s entered the league – a guy who takes the ball away and a guy who gives TDs away. That’s why Peters is key. He’s great at gambling and reading the QB, but Tom Brady won’t be easily fooled. Teams like to double move Peters because of his aggressive play, and if he gets beat a few times early, the Rams are in for a long night in Atlanta.
Key Players for Patriots
Photo credit: https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/01/29/rob-gronkowski-career-future-taking-time-deciding-patriots
James White
James White has been a pass catching machine during his time in New England. He’s caught 248 passes during his 5-year career with the Patriots and 19 catches in New England’s two playoff games this year. He’s almost a lock to be a large part of Josh McDaniel’s game plan going into sunday, particularly against the shaky play of the Ram’s LBs. I’d expect him to see plenty of touches. Remember, Kamara and Ingram combined for 13 receptions against the Rams’ linebackers last week.
Rob Gronkowski
Gronk is a nightmare matchup against any team, but I don’t see a player on the Rams roster that can keep up with him. Chiefs safety Eric Berry is one of the premier players at his position, and Gronk had a field day against him when matched up one-on-one. He’s the only pass catcher in New England’s offense that can demand a double team. Even when Gronk is doubled, Brady is very likely to find the open target on a consistent basis.
Devin McCourty
McCourty has been the mainstay on a defense that has had constant turnover during Belichick’s time as the Patriot’s head coach and de facto defensive coordinator. The 8-time defensive captain (chosen by his teammates) man’s the deep middle of the field but also offers run support and the ability to matchup against slot receivers and tight ends. This versatility will be key in a game where he will see dynamic playmakers such as Brandin Cooks, Gerald Everett, Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds.
Advantages & Disadvantages
Rams Advantages
Super Bowl Experience – Both teams offer their share of advantages over their opponent. Most people would say that lacking Super Bowl Experience is a negative thing but I think it can be a positive for the Rams. Although McVay does get cute with his play calling every now and then, coaching and playing with a nothing to lose mentality could bode well for the underdog Rams.
Wade Phillips –Wade Phillips was the man that orchestrated one of the best defenses ever in Denver and came out with a Lombardi against the Carolina Panthers in SB L. His defenses have been known for getting after the quarterback and playing great coverage in the back end. As noted above, Peters will be key to the Rams having success. If Peters, Aqib Talib, Lamarcus Joyner and their counterbacks in the defensive backfield can keep tight coverage against the Patriots speedy receivers, Phillips will be able to unleash his play calling.
Photo credit: https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/10/todd-gurleys-smart-and-classy-move-on-games-final-play-wasnt-loved-by-everyone
Todd Gurley – Gurley is a matchup nightmare. Big enough to run through the A and B gaps, fast enough to get to the edge and athletic enough to line up out wide and frequently get open against defensive backs. McVay has had two weeks to figure out how he can match Gurley against the Patriots linebackers as many times as he possible. I’d imagine Belichick and company will have an adjustment, but will it be enough?
Rams Disadvantages
Super Bowl Experience – Okay, i’m not a hypocrite, but Super Bowl experience is also one of the disadvantages that the Rams have going into Sunday. There’s something about being there before that makes the team’s confidence rise and the fan’s confidence rise as well.
Gurley’s Health – Gurley’s nagging knee injury can play a huge factor in Sunday’s game. If he’s less than 100%, McVay has to figure out a way to implement Gurley and Anderson without tipping his hand to the defense.
Patriots Advantages
Been There, Done That – This will be Brady and Belichick’s 8th Super Bowl as a duo. They’ve been here. Once they get off the bus to Mercedes-Benz Stadium, there won’t be any butterflies or discomfort from these two and the many others on New England’s roster that have had Super Bowl appearances. A fast start on Sunday shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Getty Images
The GOATs – Not much to say here. We’re getting closer and closer to eliminating the “arguably” when saying the title of best QB and best Head Coach of all time belong to Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck, respectively.
Offensive Line – ZERO. That’s how many times Brady has been sacked in two playoff games this season. The offensive line has been remarkable against the opposing team’s pass rush, but they’ve also helped Sony Michel and company rush for 331 yards in their two playoff games.
Patriots Disadvantages
Inferior Roster – I’ve thought long about two more disadvantages for the Patriots but I could only come up with one, that being, they have the inferior roster across the board.
At nearly every position group, the Rams have more talent on paper, most notably RB and WR, as well as on the defensive line and in the secondary. Even with the inferior roster, the Patriots have advantages in the two areas where it matters the most, QB and head coach. With the dynamic duo of Brady and Belichick, the Pats are never really an underdog.
The Rams Win If?
Gurley gets 25-30 touches, Goff takes care of the ball and Sean McVay doesn’t outcoach himself. If Gurley gets touches in the 20-25 range, that means that their offense is clicking. If they are playing from behind, then McVay is almost forced to scratch the run game and air it out with Goff. A large part in the Rams not having to play from behind will be Jared Goff taking care of the football.
Goff had 32 passing TDs to only 12 interceptions during the regular season. That may seem like too many interceptions, but you have to take into account how many chances McVay gives Goff during the game to air it out. Airing it out too much has gotten McVay and the Rams in trouble some this season. In situations where they can simply run out some clock, McVay calls routine passing plays because...I mean, the offense is clicking. Even if his offense is clicking on all cylinders, you can’t allow Brady second chances. Ask the Chiefs...
(Photo Credit: Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
The Patriots Win if?
The offensive line continues to dominate, the defense gets pressure on Goff (like the Saints did early), and if the game is tied with one minute to go and Brady is getting the ball. Although I don’t expect the Rams to compile a good number of sacks on Brady, I don’t see Michel and the stable of ball carriers for New England moving the line of scrimmage like they did against the Chiefs, especially with Rams having players like Donald, Suh, Fowler and Brockers along the defensive line.
The Saints only amassed one sack against Goff during the NFC Championship game, but they applied enough pressure during the first half to have Goff off balance and forced him into some arrant throws. If they can do what the Saints did but apply that pressure throughout the game or key situations, they will be in good shape. As for the last scenario – good luck.
PREDICTION
I’m not a big prediction guy and i’m especially not a gambling man. But…
Head says: Rams 31, Patriots 27 (Rams build two score lead and are able to narrowly hang on.)
Heart says: Patriots 31, Rams 29 (Brady leads last minute comeback – per usual)