Tom Terrific Takes Tampa

If you’re passing out free agent grades, the highest in the class by far goes to Tampa this off-season. Tom Brady joins the Buccaneers after a storied 20 year career in New England. Brady is not the player he was, say, 10 years ago, but most guys aren’t. Most guys also aren’t the greatest ever at their position, and even a slightly declining Brady is one of the elite QB’s in the NFL. Pairing him alongside one of the better coaches in the league in Bruce Arians, and a severely underrated defense, makes Tampa an instant title contender.  

Offense

Aside from that absurdly magical year with Randy Moss in 2007, Brady has never had a weapon like Mike Evans. Since his debut in 2014, Evans has had no less than 67 catches and 1000 yards receiving in a season. His production slightly dropped last season, but much of that is owing to increased double teams and tigher coverage from opposing defenses. The emergence of third year man Chris Godwin as an elite WR2 really opened up Tampa’s offense, and he’s likely to play an even bigger role this coming season. 

O.J. Howard has been pedestrian at-best since being taken 19th overall in 2017, but he’s solid TE2 behind Cameron Brate. I expect Arian’s and the office to utilize a lot of two TE sets to open up space on the outside for Evans and Godwin, while creating intermediate opportunities for Brady to make quick decisions to Howard, Brate and running back Ronald Jones. 

Along the offensive line, Tampa is average. They aren’t anywhere near bad, but this will be the least talented offensive line Brady has worked behind in quite some time. Center Ryan Jensen has battled some issues with consistency in years past, but is a top 10 center in the league. Donovan Smith is a quality left tackle, and Ali Marpet, in my view, is one of the more underappreciated interior offensive lineman in the game. The left side of this offensive line is strong. The right side is slightly more concerning. Alex Cappa made a pretty sizeable jump from year one to two, and the Bucs will be looking for continued improvement in his third year. Joe Haeg looks primed to be the team’s starter at right tackle. It remains to be seen how good he can be in full-time action. The Bucs will look very closely at drafting a tackle.

At the moment, Tampa relies on third year man Ronald Jones out of USC and Dare Ogunbowale at running back. Jones is more of a first and second down back, while Ogunbowale is a slightly better pass blocker. The Bucs need to address this position on Day 2 of the draft. 

Defense

An underrated stop unit that legitimately might have been the best defense in the league if not for Mr. 30 for 30 comes back strong. Led by All-Pro Lavonte David at inside backer, the front seven includes Vita Vea, William Gholston and Ndamukong Suh. Off the edge comes the former Bronco Shaquill Barrett and a far from done Jason Pierre-Paul. David, Barrett and Pierre-Paul might not be the players they were two or three years ago, but they are still high-level playmakers.

If last year’s first round pick, LB Devin White out of LSU, can improve off a disappointing rookie season, it will greatly enhance the freedom of the defensive line to tee off opposing QBs and get to the backfield early. Considering he was the fifth overall pick, such an expectation is more than reasonable. 

As a team, Tampa’s weakness is in the secondary. But while they don’t have any elite corners or safeties, they’re not staring down the barrel of starting any awful players in the back frame of the defense either. Jamel Dean steps into a starting role alongside Carlton Davis. Sean Murphy-Bunting’s rookie year saw him play all 16 games and record 47 tackles as a nickle back. Mike Edwards, the rookie out of Kentucky, recorded 45 tackles last season, and is a good candidate for a breakout season in 2020 with the elite front seven in front of him. Tampa could stand to add some depth/swing for an infusion of talent in the secondary. If safety Grant Delpit from LSU falls to their second round pick at 45, it could be very hard to pass him up.

Draft Needs

Picking 14th overall, Tampa is in a good spot to address their most pressing needs. Many draft outlets see the Bucs taking an offensive tackle with the 14th overall pick, and while I don’t think they need an edge tackle, they could certainly use the upgrade and look for Haeg to simply provide depth. That, and 14th overall is just way too early to address their other needs at running back and in the seoncdary. In the highly unlikely event Jeff Okudah slips to the bottom of the top ten, maybe you see the Bucs move up. Instead, it’s more likely they sit pat at 14 or trade up moderately to 11 or 12 to get one of the remaining tackles. Alabama’s Jedrick Willis, Jr. would make a fine addition, so too would George product Andrew Thomas. 

Their second-round pick has to be a running back. Wisconsin’s Jonathon Taylor, Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins or LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helarie are likely in the mix. Utah’s Zack Moss would be a steal here and the perfect fit to compliment to Brady’s offense. They could get fancy and take De’Andrew Swift at 14, adding a dynamic play maker at running back to the offense, but those chances seem fairly slim.

Projection

Adding Brady to a team steeped in talent with a balanced roster was the best move of the offseason. If not for Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions, and consistently being put in tough field position, Tampa’s defense likely would have finished the season in the top two. They’ll have that shot this go around. Arians has yet to win a title as a head coach. He’s got a fantastic shot to do that this season. Projection: 1st in NFC South