Matthew Stafford is entering his age 32 season after being drafted first overall in 2009. Stafford is the kind of guy you want as your franchise QB. He’s a standup guy that has never been in trouble and shows up to work everyday. Up until his season ending injury this past season, he was also known as iron man, showing up to lead his troops into battle every single Sunday. Stafford is the kind of guy you want to play with, the kind of guy you want to coach, and the kind of guy you want to root for. He’s thrown for no less than 3700 yards in every single season he’s played 16 games.

And yet, it’s time for the Lions to start planning for life without Matt Stafford. With the third pick in the draft, Detroit could find itself with an outlook for the future different than the one they currently face now. The Lions surely won’t (and shouldn’t) cut Stafford this offseason, as doing so would lead to an astronomical $32 million in dead money. But the next two offseasons present more opportunities for relief, as releasing Stafford after the 2020 season would leave $19 million in dead money, and after 2021, the Lions would have $20 million in cap savings with only $6 million in dead money if they were to cut Stafford.

It’s reasonable to ask if the both Stafford and the Lions have peaked with him under center. After 11 seasons, Stafford is merely 69-79-1 as a starter. You’re not in QB purgatory with him as your starter. However, you’re also not in elite territory, and while you can make a very successful argument that Stafford has been prevented from having success by Detroit’s front office, you can also argue his albatross of a contract won’t help steer that tide anytime soon.

Offense

Detroit ended last season on a nine game losing streak after Stafford went down, and while there are several takeaways from that, the most notable is that Jeff Driskel is not a competent backup QB. The good news is David Blough, despite going 0-5 as a starter, seemingly is. If the Lions insist on sticking with Stafford, they can do worse than Blough as backup. At RB, Kerryon Johnson and Ty Johnson provide a serviceable one-two punch that will collectively cost the Lions less than $3 million this upcoming season. That’s a bargain you stick with.

As for pass catchers, the Lions are set at receiver, and have a formidable unit that hasn’t held hostage the teams cap situation. Kennedy Gollady had a Pro Bowl season off 1000+ receiving yards and only 65 catches, and Detroit perfectly pairs him with a big, rangy target in Marvin Jones and a possession minded, sure handed slot guy in Danny Amendola. Rookie T.J. Hockensen had 32 catches in his opening campaign, and he and Jesse James, with this stacked receiving corps, make for a decent TE pairing.

Detroit finds itself in pretty good shape on the most important unit in football, as the offensive line is full of young talent. Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow are in top ten in the league in their respective positions, and Joe Dahl coming from IR at LG should help preserve some continuity. Tyler Crosby’s performance at RT dipped a little this pass season, but that also has some to do with less than talented signal callers behind him. The Lions just lost Graham Glasgow, one of the top right guards in the NFL, to the Denver Broncos. They responded by massively overpaying Halapoulivatti Pavali $50 million. Pavali has been a serviceable backup in Philly for quite some time, but it remains to be seen whether he can shoulder a full time, starter role. Nevertheless, the Lions have made a lot of mistakes, but assembling a top 15 offensive line in the league is something Lions GM Bob Quinn should be applauded for.

Defense

Simply put, Darius Slay is just not the player he used to be. With defensive backs, it tends to take the media and general public a little while longer to figure out a guy isn’t as good as his reputation, and Slay fits that bill. Just like his former NFC North counter mate, former Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes, Slay is being shopped around by the Lions more on his past reputation than his 2019 performance. That may be why Detroit has been unable to get what they would like for him in a trade.

This defensive unit has Trey Flowers and Devon Kennard on the edge, and a good safety tandem in Tracy Walker and Tavon Wilson. Other than that, this side of the ball is atrocious. The Lions need upgrades at every possible defensive level and unit imaginable.

Justin Coleman is a piece worth retaining to play the slot on Nickel packages. DT Romeo Okwara had his production drop significantly, from 7.5 sacks in 2018 to just 1.5 in 2019, but he’s worth keeping around on the interior as he enters his fifth season. The team resigned CB Justin Coleman to a four year, $36 million contract a couple days ago. I think that’s $2-4 million too much annually for a guy of Coleman’s talent, but when you’re as depleted on defense as the Lions are, you can do much worse. I believe Detroit should take a QB with the third overall pick, because you are not contending for titles consistently without a really good one. That said, every other pick needs to be devoted to upgrading a porous defense.

Coaching

I would have moved on from Matt Patricia. I am skeptical of Bill Belichick disciples as head coaches to begin with, but that aside, I just haven’t seen enough from Patricia to believe he has any idea what he’s doing as a head coach. The Lions brass likely stuck with him because of Stafford’s season ending injury, yet Patricia managed a mere 6-10 record with Stafford playing all 16 games in 2018. Detroit would have been better off putting a full court press on Kansas City Offensive Coordinator Eric Bienemy, but heck, here we go with Patricia again. The good news for Lions fans is that having Patricia at the helm this season should set them up for another top 10 draft pick, aligning well with the continued decline of Aaron Rodgers and an aging Kirk Cousins. With the right draft picks and free agent signings, and another year of an incompetent head coach, Detroit should contend for the NFC North in 2021. Which brings me to….

Top Draft Pick: Tua Tagavolia, QB – Alabama

I doubt this will be the pick for the Lions, but it should be the pick. Tua suffered a devestating hip injury towards the end of last season, but by all accounts, he’s a go to be fully healed this upcoming season. Tua and his timeline are an absolutely perfect fit for Detroit. You can sit him all of this season to ensure he is fully recovered. You can have him fully integrated into camp heading into the 2021 season to compete with Stafford. You can then cut Stafford after the 2021 season, save a bunch of money on the cap to go out and get more weapons for Tua, edge rushers or extend the offensive line talent you currently have on your roster. Next, you fire Patricia after next season and bring in a QB mentor guru to help develop Tua, all the while giving him two solid years to further build out his frame to protect against the beating of the NFL. It makes too much sense, and that’s why the Lions are probably going to waste the third overall pick on Isiah Simmons. That’s no slight to Simmons, as he is going to be an exceptional player, and is probably the second best defensive talent in this draft after Chase Young. That said, you simply do not take LBs third overall.

If the Lions stick with their guns and do not use this magical opportunity to draft a franchise QB with elite potential, they should do the obvious and draft CB Jeff Okudah out of Ohio State, or trade down and stock pile assets to help address their morbid, 28th ranked DVOA defensive unit.

Way-Too-Early Projection

It’s time to move on from Matthew Stafford. While Stafford is a consummate professional and leaves your franchise a notch above QB purgatory, he isn’t great or elite, and never will be. The Lions have peaked with him at signal caller, and with it a mediocre head coach, they don’t have a shot to contend this season. Their focus should be on planning for the future this upcoming draft, and that starts by leaving draft weekend with a new franchise QB. I doubt they will do that, however, which means more prolonged losing for a fanbase used to it at this point. Projection— Last in NFC North

The Case Against Matthew Stafford

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